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News/A Tale of Two Variances: When Single-Seed Benchmarks Fail in Bayesian Deep Learning
arxiv
PublishedApril 28, 2026 at 4:00 AM

A Tale of Two Variances: When Single-Seed Benchmarks Fail in Bayesian Deep Learning

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arXiv:2604.23114v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In limited-data settings, a single endpoint mean of an evaluation metric such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is itself a random variable, yet it is routinely reported as if it were a stable property of the method. We study when this

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