Newsletter
// a weekly bloomberg-style brief of the AI model market
THE BUBBLE
BRIEF.
Five minutes. Tuesday 13:00 UTC. The week's top movers, one story explained, a price watch, every new model tracked. Original data analysis only — no source paraphrasing, no AI fluff.
Free forever. One click to unsubscribe at any time.
- 01Top movers
The 5 models with the largest 7-day shift — downloads, arena ELO, or benchmarks. Ranked, with stats.
- 02Cooling off
Models that lost steam. Surfaces fading momentum before it shows up on the leaderboards.
- 03Story of the week
One signal, explained. Why it matters, what it changes, who it touches. ~200 words, no fluff.
- 04Price watch
Per-million-token pricing changes across hosted APIs. Diffs from last week, with absolute numbers.
- 05New models tracked
Every new model added to the universe this week, with HF id and provider.
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THE BUBBLE BRIEF · WK 18 · 04 May 2026
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[01] TOP 5 MOVERS · 7d
01 deepseek-v4-pro ▲ +28.3% DL 1.2M
02 meta-llama/llama-4-405b ▲ +14.7% DL 684K
03 qwen/qwen-3-72b-instruct ▲ +11.2% DL 503K
04 mistralai/mixtral-8x32b ▲ +9.4% DL 441K
05 google/gemma-3-27b ▲ +6.8% DL 312K
[02] COOLING OFF
01 meta-llama/llama-3-70b ▼ -8.1% DL 229K
02 cohere/command-r-plus ▼ -5.4% DL 91K
03 microsoft/phi-3-medium ▼ -3.9% DL 142K
[03] STORY OF THE WEEK
DeepSeek V4 lands. 405B MoE, 32K active, MIT-license.
Arena debut at 1,348 ELO — 4 points behind GPT-5,
2 points ahead of Claude 4.5. Pricing: $0.27 / Mtok in,
$1.10 / Mtok out. The aggressive open-weight pricing
is the headline; the architecture (sparse MoE with
expert-routing on long-context) is the real signal.
[04] PRICE WATCH · per-million tokens
IN $ OUT $ Δ 7d
01 openai / gpt-5-mini 0.45 1.80 —
02 anthropic / claude-4.5 3.00 15.00 −10%
03 deepseek / deepseek-v4 0.27 1.10 new
04 google / gemini-2.5 0.50 2.00 —
05 mistral / mistral-large 1.20 4.80 −8%
[05] NEW MODELS TRACKED · 14 added this week
- deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Pro
- alibaba/Qwen3-Coder-32B
- cohere/aya-32b-multilingual
- 11 more — see the bubble chart →
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that's it for this week. tuesday 13:00 utc, see you then.
=========================================================// sample only · numbers above are illustrative
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- // founded 2026 · independent project
- // data sourced from the Databubble universe