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News/First-Passage Prediction of Grokking Delay: ACalibrated Law under AdamW with Causal Validation
arxiv
PublishedMay 21, 2026 at 4:00 AM

First-Passage Prediction of Grokking Delay: ACalibrated Law under AdamW with Causal Validation

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arXiv:2605.18845v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We give the first quantitative prediction of grokking delay under AdamW. Treating the delay as a first-passage time, we derive a closed-form law T_grok - T_mem = (1 / 2 kappa_LL eta lambda) log(V_mem / V_star), where V_t = ||theta_t||^2 is the square

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