arxivJul 18
When Directional Accuracy Lies: A Base-Rate-Honest Benchmark for LoRA-Adapted TimesFM on Equity Forecasting
arXiv:2607.12248v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large pretrained time-series models such as TimesFM are attractive for financial forecasting, but raw directional accuracy is a misleading scoreboard in equity markets. An early LoRA adapter in this project appeared to reach roughly 80% direc