arxivJun 29bullish

Dual-Prototype Disentanglement: A Context-Aware Enhancement Framework for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2601.16632v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time series forecasting has witnessed significant progress with deep learning. While prevailing approaches enhance forecasting performance by modifying architectures or introducing novel enhancement strategies, they often fail to dynamically

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arxivJun 29

Foundation vs. Specialized Models: Evaluating Catastrophic Forgetting in Continual Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2510.00809v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel in zero-shot tasks, their behavior under continual fine tuning is poorly understood. We present the first systematic study of catastrophic forgetting in TSFMs (TimesFM-2.0, Chronos-2) versus a speci

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arxivJun 18

SCAN: Enhance Time Series Anomaly Detection via Multi-Scale Neighborhood-Centered Clustering

arXiv:2606.19255v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series anomaly detection plays a crucial role in a wide range of real-world applications. Reconstruction-based methods have become the mainstream paradigm, but they suffer from over-generalization and under-generalization problems, which are chall

#anomaly-detection #machine-learning #clustering Read on arxiv →

arxivJun 17bullish

A tensor network approach for chaotic time series prediction

arXiv:2505.17740v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Making accurate predictions of chaotic time series is a complex challenge. Reservoir computing, a neuromorphic-inspired approach, has emerged as a powerful tool for this task. It exploits the memory and nonlinearity of dynamical systems without req

#machine-learning #neuromorphic #time-series Read on arxiv →

arxivMay 25bullish

PaP-NF: Probabilistic Long-Term Time Series Forecasting via Prefix-as-Prompt Reprogramming and Normalizing Flows

arXiv:2605.23219v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series forecasting plays a central role in many real-world applications and has been extensively studied. Most existing approaches rely on deterministic models. However, real-world environments exhibit inherently uncertain and complex future beh

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arxivMay 22

Discovering Entity-Conditioned Lag Heterogeneity: A Lag-Gated Neural Audit Framework for Panel Time Series

arXiv:2605.21542v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Country-level temporal panels are widely used in empirical analysis. Researchers often need to audit how different entities respond to historical signals over different time horizons. Current approaches typically do not provide directly auditable entit

AC1 model #machine-learning #time-series #audit Read on arxiv →

arxivMay 21bullish

INSHAPE: Instance-Level Shapelets for Interpretable Time-Series Classification

arXiv:2605.20088v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Discovering shapelets -- i.e., discriminative temporal patterns within time series -- has been widely studied to address the inherent complexity of time-series classification (TSC) and to make model decision-making processes more transparent. However

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arxivMay 15

What if Tomorrow is the World Cup Final? Counterfactual Time Series Forecasting with Textual Conditions

arXiv:2605.14422v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting has become increasingly critical in real-world scenarios, where future sequences are influenced not only by historical patterns but also by forthcoming events. In this context, forecasting must dynamically adapt to complex and s

#time-series #forecasting #machine-learning Read on arxiv →

arxivMay 13bullish

Towards Uncertainty-Aware Federated Granger Causal Learning

arXiv:2602.13004v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Granger causality recovers directed interactions from time-series data, but in many distributed systems, the data are vertically partitioned across clients, with each client observing only the variables of its own subsystem. Federated Granger causa

#federated-learning #time-series #causality Read on arxiv →

arxivMay 13bullish

TTCD:Transformer Integrated Temporal Causal Discovery from Non-Stationary Time Series Data

arXiv:2605.08111v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The widespread availability of complex time series data in various domains such as environmental science, epidemiology, and economics demands robust causal discovery methods that can identify intricate contemporaneous and lagged relationships in non-

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arxivMay 8

Online Localized Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2605.05497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online conformal methods,

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arxivApr 30bullish

Exploring the Potential of Probabilistic Transformer for Time Series Modeling: A Report on the ST-PT Framework

arXiv:2604.26762v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The Probabilistic Transformer (PT) establishes that the Transformer's self-attention plus its feed-forward block is mathematically equivalent to Mean-Field Variational Inference (MFVI) on a Conditional Random Field (CRF). Under this equivalence the T

PRSP2 models #time-series #probabilistic-models #transformers Read on arxiv →

arxivApr 14bullish

MSTN: A Lightweight and Fast Model for General TimeSeries Analysis

arXiv:2511.20577v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real-world time series often exhibit strong non-stationarity, complex nonlinear dynamics, and behavior expressed across multiple temporal scales, from rapid local fluctuations to slow-evolving long-range trends. However, many contemporary architect

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arxivApr 10

Matrix Profile for Anomaly Detection on Multidimensional Time Series

arXiv:2409.09298v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The Matrix Profile (MP), a versatile tool for time series data mining, has been shown effective in time series anomaly detection (TSAD). This paper delves into the problem of anomaly detection in multidimensional time series, a common occurre

#time-series #anomaly-detection #machine-learning Read on arxiv →