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News/TimeSeek: Temporal Reliability of Agentic Forecasters
arxiv
PublishedApril 7, 2026 at 4:00 AM
—neutral

TimeSeek: Temporal Reliability of Agentic Forecasters

Source
arxiv.orgfull article ↗
Read on arxiv→
Publisher summary· verbatim

arXiv:2604.04220v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce TimeSeek, a benchmark for studying how the reliability of agentic LLM forecasters changes over a prediction market's lifecycle. We evaluate 10 frontier models on 150 CFTC-regulated Kalshi binary markets at five temporal checkpoints, with a

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Discussion
Mentioned models
01
  • 01
    TimeSeek
Source
↗
arxiv
Read original ↗All from arxiv →
Tags
04
#benchmark#forecasting#evaluation#llm
Mentioned companies
02
KalshiCFTC

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Mentioned models
01
  • 01
    TimeSeek
Source
↗
arxiv
Read original ↗All from arxiv →
Tags
04
#benchmark#forecasting#evaluation#llm
Mentioned companies
02
KalshiCFTC

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